Wienerlog 
  corner   



HOME

Rare insights, and deservedly so.

ABOUT ME

Email:
wienerlog @ bidslash.com

My Daily Links:

Instapundit

Free Republic

The National Football Post

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/Packers

Press Gazette Packers News

Next Big Future

Tim Blair

Drudge

Hot Air

Volokh Conspiracy

Reason Hit & Run

Brian Dennert here

Mickey Kaus

James Lileks

Michelle Malkin

Wall Street Journal
Best of the Web

Real Clear Politics

Power Line



ARCHIVES
01/01/2002 - 02/01/2002 02/01/2002 - 03/01/2002 03/01/2002 - 04/01/2002 04/01/2002 - 05/01/2002 05/01/2002 - 06/01/2002 06/01/2002 - 07/01/2002 07/01/2002 - 08/01/2002 08/01/2002 - 09/01/2002 09/01/2002 - 10/01/2002 10/01/2002 - 11/01/2002 11/01/2002 - 12/01/2002 12/01/2002 - 01/01/2003 01/01/2003 - 02/01/2003 02/01/2003 - 03/01/2003 03/01/2003 - 04/01/2003 04/01/2003 - 05/01/2003 05/01/2003 - 06/01/2003 07/01/2003 - 08/01/2003 08/01/2003 - 09/01/2003 09/01/2003 - 10/01/2003 11/01/2003 - 12/01/2003 12/01/2003 - 01/01/2004 04/01/2004 - 05/01/2004 05/01/2004 - 06/01/2004 09/01/2004 - 10/01/2004 10/01/2004 - 11/01/2004 05/01/2005 - 06/01/2005 07/01/2005 - 08/01/2005 08/01/2005 - 09/01/2005 09/01/2005 - 10/01/2005 10/01/2005 - 11/01/2005 02/01/2007 - 03/01/2007 06/01/2007 - 07/01/2007 08/01/2007 - 09/01/2007 05/01/2009 - 06/01/2009 04/01/2010 - 05/01/2010 08/01/2011 - 09/01/2011 04/01/2012 - 05/01/2012 10/01/2014 - 11/01/2014

 

Thursday, January 16, 2003

  0 comments

The Inpection Trap.

According to this article, the Bush Administration is privately reassuring Republicans that it will produce the necessary evidence to marshall public support for a war against Iraq.

Many skeptics have been complaining that Bush has failed to demonstrate a connection between September 11th and Saddam Hussein, but they are totally missing the politics of the situation. Whether or not it exists, why would they ever expect Bush to provide such a connection at this point in the process?

What Bush is doing is creating an "inspection trap".

U.N. inspectors are busy running around in Iraq, but so far haven't uncovered "smoking gun" evidence of WMDs. Rumsfield is saying that "the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." So anti-war activists are jumping on that. They are asking how Iraq can be required to prove a negative. They are more and more building their case around the failure of the Bush Administration to come up with concrete proof of either Iraqi WMDs or Iraqi-terrorist links. On the surface it seems like an effective anti-war strategy. It has had a limited amount of resonance with the American public, and it has had strong resonance with public opinion in other countries.

It is, as I said, a public relations trap.

Troops and material are still being moved into position for the upcoming war, and the pace is picking up rapidly, as indicated by all the recent reports about troop embarkments and other deployments. In a matter of weeks everything will be in place. Why would the Bush Administration want to prematurely reveal "smoking gun" evidence until the very day it was ready to flip the switch and start the actual aerial bombardment?

When the time comes, I guarantee you that Bush will make a major speech to the nation laying out his arguments for going to war in highly persuasive terms. He'll reveal previously-secret intelligence evidence which (true or not) will appear extremely convincing with regard to WMDs and terrorist ties. In effect the Administration is suckering its anti-war foes into putting all their eggs in one "straw man" basket, which Bush will conveniently knock down at the time of his own choosing. Public support for a war against Iraq will spike upward. Then, before Bush's opponents can assimilate the newly-revealed data and try to rebut it, the war will have started (and probably ended).

Those who think otherwise are again misunderestimating Bush.








Comments: Post a Comment



This page is powered by Blogger.